New research from Infrastructure Victoria has warned more than $57 billion of Government-owned or regulated infrastructure is at risk of damage or destruction from extreme weather – with the risk to rise by nearly 25% in the next 40 years.
Its latest research, Warning signs: climate change risks to Victoria’s infrastructure, looks at $318 billion worth of assets across Victoria and the risks they face from seven different extreme weather events. The research is a first of its kind for Australia.
“Our research highlights which assets are most exposed, which climate risks matter most, and where risks are concentrated across the state,” said Infrastructure Victoria CEO, Dr Jonathan Spear.
“It shows where the Victorian Government should act now to reduce future damage, service disruption and millions in recovery costs.”
The research shows bushfire, flood and extreme heat pose the greatest risks, with more than $23 billion of existing infrastructure at risk from bushfires – rising to over $30 billion by 2070. It claims over $22 billion worth of infrastructure is already at risk of flooding, while infrastructure at risk from extreme heat more than doubles between 2030 and 2070 to nearly $26 billion.
The analysis also shows the infrastructure types and locations most at risk include:
- much road infrastructure is at risk from floods, bushfires and extreme heat, with a large value of road assets at risk located in Melbourne, central Victoria, and along major roads towards Wodonga and Traralgon;
- rail infrastructure is at risk from extreme heat, floods and bushfires, with a large value of assets at risk located around Melbourne, Geelong and along regional rail corridors in northern Victoria;
- energy infrastructure is at risk from bushfires, floods and extreme heat, with a large value of energy assets at risk in northern Victoria near Ouyen and Mildura, from Melbourne extending east to the Latrobe Valley, and in Portland;
- health assets across Victoria are at risk from floods, bushfires and extreme heat, with a large value at risk in Bendigo, Swan Hill, Mildura and south-east of Melbourne.
In Victoria’s infrastructure strategy 2025–2055, Infrastructure Victoria recommended the State Government fund high-priority, cost-effective infrastructure adaptation actions. This research provides guidance on where to focus adaptation action and funding by identifying the infrastructure types and locations most at risk from climate hazards.
Research from the Global Commission on Adaptation shows that resilient infrastructure can deliver up to $10 in benefits for every dollar invested. Infrastructure Victoria’s previous research, Weathering the storm, shows preventative maintenance for roads is the most cost-effective way to protect them from flooding.
“Every $1 extra spent on clearing roadside drains and vegetation returns $5.88 and reduces the risk of landslides after bushfires. When the government looks to upgrade or build new roads in high-risk locations, our research shows technology like foamed bitumen stabilisation returns nearly $3 for every $1 spent and prevents at-risk roads being washed away by floods,” said Dr Spear.
“The government needs to update and fund its adaptation plans. Funding high-priority, cost-effective infrastructure adaptation actions can save millions in recovery costs and lost productivity.
“The government is already adopting some effective adaptation measures. But more needs to be done, across every sector. This research provides the evidence base to prioritise spending so the government can better protect the essential infrastructure that communities rely on for work, to connect with each other and to keep them healthy.
“Following a summer that saw bushfires, flooding and landslides hit many Victorian communities, we know extreme weather is a reality now.
“As the government maintains existing infrastructure and builds new infrastructure, our research shows where it needs to focus its efforts so that infrastructure can better cope with our current and future climate,” he said.
Sector infrastructure values*** at risk of damage
| Sector | 2030 low emissions | 2070 high emissions |
|---|---|---|
| All infrastructure | $57.2b of infrastructure at risk of damage | $71.3b of infrastructure at risk of damage |
| Roads | $20.2b of infrastructure at risk of damage | $25.1b of infrastructure at risk of damage |
| Rail | $10.3b of infrastructure at risk of damage | $13b of infrastructure at risk of damage |
| Energy | $7.2b of infrastructure at risk of damage | $10.1b of infrastructure at risk of damage |
| Health | $5.3b of infrastructure at risk of damage | $7.1b of infrastructure at risk of damage |
| Major ports | $5.5b of infrastructure at risk of damage | $5.5b of infrastructure at risk of damage |
| Parks | $1.9b of infrastructure at risk of damage | $1.98b of infrastructure at risk of damage |
| Education and training | $3.3b of infrastructure at risk of damage | $4.1b of infrastructure at risk of damage |
| Justice and community safety | $844m of infrastructure at risk of damage | $1.3b of infrastructure at risk of damage |
| Cultural and community | $1b of infrastructure at risk of damage | $1.1b of infrastructure at risk of damage |
| Government-owned housing | $1.5b of infrastructure at risk of damage | $2b of infrastructure at risk of damage |
**Value of infrastructure at risk from more than one hazard, and ‘at risk’ infrastructure means infrastructure assessed at level 3 or more on a 4-point risk scale.
Sector vulnerability to hazards
| Sector | Vulnerability drivers**** |
|---|---|
| Roads | Highest vulnerability to damage from coastal inundation, flooding and landslides. Highly vulnerable to downtime from flood, bushfire, and coastal inundation. |
| Rail | Highly vulnerable to damage and downtime from extreme heat, flood, bushfire, coastal inundation. |
| Energy | Highly vulnerable to damage from bushfire and coastal inundation. Highly vulnerable to downtime from bushfire, drought, coastal inundation and flood. |
| Health | Highly vulnerable to damage from bushfires, coastal inundation and flood. Highly vulnerable to downtime from bushfire, coastal inundation, extreme heat and flood. |
| Major ports | Highly vulnerable to damage from bushfires, coastal inundation and damaging winds. Highly vulnerable to downtime from coastal inundation and damaging winds. |
| Parks | Highly vulnerable to damage and downtime from bushfires and coastal inundation. |
| Education and training | Highly vulnerable to damage and downtime from bushfires and coastal inundation. |
| Justice and community safety | Highly vulnerable to damage from bushfires and coastal inundation. Vulnerable to downtime from flooding, coastal inundation and bushfires. |
| Cultural and community | Highly vulnerable to damage and downtime from bushfires and coastal inundation. Moderately vulnerable to drought, flooding. |
| Government-owned housing | Higher downtime risk from extreme heat, coastal inundation and bushfires. |
****Vulnerability and exposure are combined to assess infrastructure risk.
Key regional facts and figures
This table shows the key regions mentioned in Infrastructure Victoria’s report, the main hazards they are exposed to and the value of infrastructure at risk in these areas.
| Region | Location***** | Main hazards | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria | Statewide | Roads: $20.2b in 2030, $25.1b in 2070. Rail: $10.3b in 2030, $13.0b in 2070. Energy: $7.1b in 2030, $10.1b in 2070. Health: $5.3b in 2030, $7.1b in 2070. | |
| Greater Melbourne | Melbourne | Flood, bushfire, multiple hazards | largest concentration of infrastructure value at risk in the state.around Melbourne there is well over $2 billion of infrastructure value at risk. |
| Barwon South West | Geelong | Flood, multiple hazards | major regional city with high value of infrastructure at riskvalue of infrastructure at risk of flood is concentrated around Melbourne and GeelongTotal infrastructure at risk: over $500 million in 2030 Roads: $150 – $500 million in 2030 Rail: $150 – $500 million in 2030 Energy: $50 – $100 million in 2030 Health: $10 – $50 million in 2030 |
| Barwon South West | Portland | Bushfire, multiple hazards | regional centre with concentrated value of infrastructure at riskbushfire hotspot in southern coastal areas in 2030 and 2070Total infrastructure at risk: over $500 million in 2030 Energy: $150 – $500 million in 2030 |
| Barwon South West | Great Ocean Road Tourism region | Bushfire | southern coastal hotspot for bushfire in 2030 and 2070 |
| Grampians | Horsham | Extreme heat, damaging wind, multiple hazards | higher hazard exposure near Horsham, and increased risk by 2070Total infrastructure at risk: $150 – 500 million in 2030 Roads: $10 – $50 million in 2030 Rail: $50 – $100 million in 2030 Energy: $50 – $100 million in 2030 Health: $10 – $50 million in 2030 |
| Loddon Mallee | Bendigo | Bushfire, multiple hazards | regional city with large value of infrastructure at riskTotal infrastructure at risk: over $610 million in 2030 Roads: $50 – $100 million in 2030 Rail: $50 – $100 million in 2030 Energy: $10 – $50 million in 2030 Health: over $500 million in 2030 |
| Loddon Mallee | Mildura | Bushfire, extreme heat, multiple hazards | regional city is a hotspot for bushfire and extreme heatTotal infrastructure at risk: over $500 million in 2030 Roads: $150 – $500 million in 2030 Rail: $100 – $150 million in 2030 Energy: $50 – $100 million in 2030 Health: $150 – $500 million in 2030 |
| Loddon Mallee | Swan Hill | Bushfire, extreme heat, multiple hazards | regional city is a hotspot for extreme heat in 2030 and for bushfire by 2070Total infrastructure at risk: $260 – $500 million in 2030 Roads: $50 – $100 million in 2030 Rail: $50 – $100 million in 2030 Energy: $10 – $50 million in 2030 Health: $150 – $500 million in 2030 |
| Loddon Mallee | Echuca | Bushfire, extreme heat, floods, multiple hazards | regional city with increasing bushfire and extreme heat risk to infrastructure by 2070Total infrastructure at risk: $260 – $500 million in 2030 Roads: $50 – $100 million in 2030 Rail: $100 – $150 million in 2030 Energy: $10 – $50 million in 2030 Health: $100 – $150 million in 2030 |
| Loddon Mallee | Ouyen | Bushfire, extreme heat, multiple hazards | regional town with significant infrastructure value at risk in the areahotspot for extreme heat and bushfire and increasing risk from bushfire in 2070Total infrastructure at risk: over $500 million in 2030 Roads: $10 – $50 million in 2030 Rail: $50 – $100 million in 2030 Energy: $150 – $500 million in 2030 Health: $50 – $100 million in 2030 |
| Hume | Shepparton | Flood, multiple hazards | regional city with high-risk to multiple hazards, forms part of high-risk corridor through central Victoria to MelbourneTotal infrastructure at risk: over $500 million in 2030 Roads: $100 – $150 million in 2030 Rail: $50 – $100 million in 2030 Energy: $50 – $100 million in 2030 |
| Hume | Wangaratta | Extreme heat, multiple hazards | regional city with increased infrastructure value at risk between 2030 and 2070, especially road and health assetsTotal infrastructure at risk: $210 – $500 million in 2030 Roads: $150 – $500 million in 2030 Rail: $50 – $100 million in 2030 Energy: $10 – $50 million in 2030 |
| Hume | Wodonga | Bushfire, flood, extreme heat | regional city with increased infrastructure value at risk between 2030 and 2070part of a major high-risk corridor through central and northern Victoria, especially for transportTotal infrastructure at risk: $160 – $500 million in 2030 Roads: $100 – $150 million in 2030 Rail: $50 – $100 million in 2030 Energy: $10 – $50 million in 2030 |
| Gippsland | Traralgon | Bushfire, multiple hazards | regional centre with concentrated value at risk in 2030 along the M1 transport route |
| Gippsland | Latrobe Valley (sub-region within Gippsland) | Bushfire, flood | concentrated value of infrastructure at risk in 2030sector-wide energy value at risk: $7.2b in 2030 and $10.1b in 2070 |
| Gippsland | Eastern Gippsland (sub-region within Gippsland) | Bushfire | bushfire hotspot with large value of infrastructure at risk |
| Gippsland | Wilsons Promontory (National park) | Bushfire, damaging wind | high bushfire and high damaging wind exposure but low value of infrastructure at risk of damage |
*****Location represents a 25 square kilometre grid with infrastructure at risk to one or more of the 7 climate hazards assessed; except for Melbourne’s value of infrastructure at risk which uses two 25 square kilometre grids.
Visit Infrastructure Victoria’s website at infrastructurevictoria.com.au to explore the independent authority’s latest research and Victoria’s 30-year infrastructure strategy.
